报告在这里:
http://reviewipcc.interacademycouncil.net/report.html就科学本森而言,最重要的意见就是这一条:
Recommendation: Quantitative probabilities (as in the likelihood scale) should be used to
describe the probability of well-defined outcomes only when there is sufficient evidence.
Authors should indicate the basis for assigning a probability to an outcome or event (e.g.,
based on measurement, expert judgment, and/or model runs).
它所指出的无非就是这一点:IPCC报告里面所谓的"very likely" (90%)之类的判断并没有依据。