送交者: james_bond_3rd 于 2008-01-22, 19:22:51:
回答: Actually, it looks like we are nearing bottom 由 tom_cat 于 2008-01-22, 18:17:51:
The equity put/call ratio went over 1 today. That means the short term bottom is probably in. However, long term outlook is quite bleak. Since last fall, the Fed has cut rates a number of times. The conventional wisdom says that the market rallies when the Fed cuts. However, this time the stock declined in lock step with the interest rates for the past three months. It means that the interest rate as the lever for the Fed to pull the market up is not working. Imagine that you're in a plane making a dive, and you're trying to stop the dive by pulling on the control but plane is not responding. Finally you panic and jerk forcefully on the control - today's 3/4 cut was that jerk. If that one still doesn't reverse the dive, the only thing left for you is to pray.
BTW, do you know who is Mr. 24%?